Throughout 2024, we've witnessed a significant rise in pre-owned aircraft inventory and a reduction in sale prices compared to the peak levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. While there have been numerous acquisitions, absorption rates have increased in most markets, leaving buyers questioning whether they should make a purchase now or wait for potential further price reductions.
Current Market Conditions
The business aviation market has undergone substantial changes over the past few years. Understanding these shifts is crucial for making an informed purchasing decision.
Inventory Levels
- Increased Supply: Pre-owned aircraft inventory has risen significantly compared to the historically low levels of 2021-2022
- Market Normalization: The market is returning to more traditional supply-demand dynamics
- Category Variations: Different aircraft categories are experiencing varying inventory levels, with some segments more saturated than others
Pricing Trends
Price adjustments have been notable across most segments:
- Peak to Present: Prices have declined from pandemic-era highs
- Model-Specific Variations: Some popular models maintain stronger pricing than others
- Age Factors: Older aircraft have seen more significant price adjustments
Absorption Rates
The time aircraft spend on the market has increased:
- Extended Marketing Periods: Aircraft are taking longer to sell compared to 2021-2022
- Negotiating Leverage: Buyers have more room to negotiate on price and terms
- Quality Matters: Well-maintained, properly equipped aircraft still move quickly
Factors to Consider
The Case for Buying Now
Several compelling reasons support making a purchase in the current market:
1. Favorable Buyer's Market
- More aircraft to choose from
- Greater negotiating power
- Sellers more willing to accommodate buyer requests
- Better opportunity for thorough pre-purchase inspection negotiations
2. Tax Benefits
- Current bonus depreciation provisions (while still available)
- Section 179 expensing opportunities
- Potential changes to tax laws make current benefits uncertain
3. Operational Needs
- If you need an aircraft for business operations, waiting could cost you in missed opportunities
- Charter costs and commercial aviation challenges remain significant
- Time is money - lost productivity while waiting may exceed potential savings
4. Interest Rates
- While rates have risen, they may not go significantly lower in the near term
- Financing is still available and competitive
- Strong buyers can negotiate favorable terms
The Case for Waiting
Conversely, there are reasons to consider delaying your purchase:
1. Potential Further Price Declines
- Inventory continues to build in some segments
- Economic uncertainty could pressure prices further
- Sellers facing carrying costs may become more motivated
2. New Aircraft Deliveries
- OEM backlogs are clearing somewhat
- More pre-owned aircraft may enter the market as new deliveries occur
- This could create additional pricing pressure
3. Economic Factors
- Recession concerns could impact the market
- Interest rate direction remains uncertain
- Corporate spending may face scrutiny
Market Segment Analysis
Different aircraft categories present unique considerations:
Light Jets
- Current Status: Moderate inventory, steady demand
- Outlook: Relatively stable pricing
- Recommendation: Good time to buy if you need this capability
Midsize Jets
- Current Status: Increased inventory, competitive pricing
- Outlook: Potential for modest additional declines
- Recommendation: Strong buyer's market with good selection
Large Cabin Jets
- Current Status: Higher inventory levels, significant price adjustments
- Outlook: May see further softening
- Recommendation: Excellent selection, but consider waiting if not urgent
Super Midsize Jets
- Current Status: Popular segment maintaining relatively strong values
- Outlook: More resilient pricing
- Recommendation: Don't expect dramatic further declines
Our Recommendation
While we can't predict the future with certainty, here's our guidance based on current market dynamics:
Buy Now If:
- You Have a Clear Business Need: The operational benefits outweigh potential savings from waiting
- You Find the Right Aircraft: The perfect aircraft at a fair price is worth securing
- Tax Benefits Are Important: Current depreciation rules are valuable to your situation
- You're Properly Capitalized: You have the financial resources without overextending
Wait If:
- You're Purely Speculative: Buying just to "get a deal" isn't a sound strategy
- You're Not Ready Operationally: Need more time to establish management structure
- You're Highly Uncertain: Significant life or business changes are imminent
- You're Highly Price Sensitive: Willing to risk missing opportunities for potential savings
The Middle Ground Approach
Consider a strategic approach that balances both perspectives:
Start Your Search Now
- Begin researching aircraft options
- Understand current market values
- Build relationships with brokers and sellers
- Complete pre-qualification and financing arrangements
Be Opportunistic
- Set your parameters and target price
- Move quickly when the right aircraft appears
- Don't force a purchase just to "time the market"
- Be willing to walk away if terms aren't favorable
Focus on Value, Not Just Price
- A well-maintained aircraft at a fair price is better than a bargain with hidden issues
- Consider total cost of ownership, not just acquisition price
- Factor in maintenance status, avionics upgrades, and remaining useful life
Working with Jecobra Aviation
At Jecobra Aviation, we provide unbiased market intelligence to help you make the best decision for your specific situation. Our services include:
- Market Analysis: Detailed insights into current pricing and trends for your target aircraft
- Aircraft Search: Access to both listed and off-market opportunities
- Transaction Management: Expert guidance through the entire acquisition process
- Post-Purchase Support: Ongoing assistance with management and operational needs
Conclusion
The question of whether to buy now or wait doesn't have a one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on your specific needs, financial situation, and tolerance for market timing risk. What we can say with confidence is that the current market presents genuine opportunities for prepared buyers who know what they want.
The most important factors are finding the right aircraft for your mission and ensuring it makes financial sense for your operation. Whether that happens today, next month, or next year is less important than making a well-informed decision based on solid analysis rather than speculation about future market movements.
Ready to explore your options? Contact Jecobra Aviation today to discuss your aircraft acquisition needs and receive personalized market insights tailored to your situation.
Contact Jecobra Aviation
- Phone: (830) 362-1150
- Email: info@jecobra.com
- Web: https://jecobra.com
About the Author
Brandon Sapp
Managing Partner
Founder and Managing partner of Jecobra Aviation with 10,000+ hours of flight time and 25 years experience in aircraft sales, acquisitions, management and operations. Brandon brings unparalleled expertise in helping clients navigate complex aircraft transactions.